Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
